"Strip Squeeze" isn't as dirty as it sounds

Last night in the Swiss, I picked up Qxx 9x Ax AJTxxx at all red. Partner opened 1D (10-15 HCP, 2+ D), RHO overcalled 1S, I bid 2C, partner raised to 3C, and I put us in 3NT. The S9 was led, and I saw:



It looked like nine tricks if the club finesse was on, but a few other chances if not. I put up the ace of spades at trick one (trying to get LHO to continue the suit if she won a club trick) and led a top club from the board. This lost to LHO's king, and she duly continued spades. RHO won with the king and cleared spades, but five more rounds of clubs turned her hand to mush. In order to keep all of her spades, she had to either pitch her ace of hearts or come down to the stiff king of diamonds. She decided to stiff her king, but I was able to read it and play ace then queen of diamonds for my ninth trick. Had she pitched one of her spades, I would have thrown her in with the ace of hearts and forced her to lead away from the king of diamonds at the end. Here's the whole hand:

Portland Regional Update

Hi folks---

Things are going well so far at the Portland Regional. Meg and I won Bracket 2 of the Monday-Tuesday KO with friends from Vancouver, BC, and we placed 3rd in the Wednesday Open Pairs. We start a new KO this afternoon. If you're around, please come check out my lecture this evening starting at 6:15 in the main playing area. I'll write up some of the more fun hands of the week when I get some time.

Oregon Trail Regional

The fabulous Oregon Trail Regional starts today. This tournament, held at the Vancouver, WA Hilton, would be one of my favorites even if it wasn't my "home" regional. There's lots of friendly people, nice giveaways, and a great playing site in a cool downtown area. Also, District 20 has a surprising number of excellent players, and the standard of play here is quite a bit higher than you'll find at the average regional. This is gonna be great!

Quick bidding problem from the Sarasota Regional

Via Robert Todd:

♠ KQJT3
♥ none
♦ KJ7
♣ KJ753

All white at matchpoints, your partner opens 1C. RHO pops to 2H; you bid 2S. LHO jumps to 4H, which gets passed back to you.

(A) What's your call?

(B) LHO makes the cheapest heart bid (up to 6H) over your bid. Partner and RHO pass this too. Now what's your call?

Hands from the Charlottesville Regional

The Charlottesville Regional was a huge success! Almost 1600 tables, great people, great hospitality, and a great job done by both our directing staff and the hotel staff. Thanks again to Millard and his team of directors, as well as Mark and his team at the DoubleTree.

I’ve been so busy since the tournament that I haven’t had a chance to share all the tough hands that I ran across then! Here, almost a month later, are a few of the problems I faced.

In problems A and B you’re playing with an unfamiliar, but expert, partner. All problems are from knockout (IMP) play.

(A) Red vs. white

A652 3 AJ74 AQT9

You open 1D (promising 4+), LHO overcalls 1H, partner bids 1NT, and RHO raises to 2H. You’re up. [Double would be for takeout here.]

(B) All red

K763 QJ95 J8752 –

Partner opens a strongish (good 14 to 17) 1NT, and RHO passes. What’s your bid / plan?

(C) Red vs. white

A65 AJT65 – T9843

Partner opens 1S, and RHO sticks in a 2D call. Systemically, here are your choices:

2H, natural and forcing to 3H;
3C, natural and forcing to game;
3D, invitational or better spade raise;
3H, invitational with long hearts and a spade fit, at least nine cards between the two suits;
4C, game-forcing with long clubs and a spade fit, at least nine cards between the two suits;
4D, game-forcing spade raise with at most one diamond;
And, of course, Other.

What’s your call?

(D) White vs. red

A3 KQJ85 Q QJT62

You open 1H in first seat, and your LHO’s weak 3D bid gets passed around to you. What’s your call?

Play problem

You're playing IMPS, and the auction has gone:

West	North	East	South
			1NT
2♠	2NT	p	3♣
p	3NT	p	p
p

1NT was 15-17, and 2S was natural. 2NT was lebensohl - it could have been lots of different handtypes, but after your forced 3C call, partner's 3NT bid revealed a raise to 3NT with a spade stopper.

LHO leads the king of spades, and you see:

♠ A75 ♥ 742 ♦ AQ432 ♣ 98

♠ J2 ♥ AT3 ♦ K986 ♣ AK54

What's your plan here?

First thing's first: Count your tricks. Ace of spades, ace of hearts, ace-king of clubs, and five diamonds add up to the nine tricks you need for 3NT. Great!

Next: Are there any problems that might arise? There's a big one, if you're not careful! Take a closer look at the diamond suit:

♦ AQ432

♦ K986

You can't run all five tricks due to the blockage in the diamond spots (unless the opposing diamonds break 2-2, which only occurs 40% of the time). Sadly, the defense has just started an assault on the side entry to the long diamond. On a heart lead, you could have won the ace, played four rounds of diamonds ending in your hand, then led to the ace of spades to cash the last diamond. But no use despairing of what could have been... can you see the way around the problem?

Just duck the first two spades! On the ace of spades you can drop one of your big diamond spots and the suit will now look like

♦ AQ432

♦ K98

Now, king, ace, and queen of diamonds will leave you in the right hand to enjoy the fifth diamond.

What if the defense doesn't do your dirty work for you? An astute West might switch after the first spade. If he switches to a heart, he sets up another trick for you there, so he'd probably lead a club. Win that club, cash two rounds of diamonds ending on the board (you never know-- they might be 2-2 this time) and duck a spade. Win the (likely) club return, lead up to the last diamond honor on the table, discard that offensive high diamond from your hand on the ace of spades, and claim your nine tricks.

Who says politicians can't play bridge?

Last week I found myself playing against the current ACBL President, Jerry Fleming, and a former ACBL President, Sharon Fairchild. Sharon and I had a game together two years ago, right after she started her one-year term, so I knew she was a sharp cookie. I hadn't played against Jerry enough to know much about his game.

My partner and I picked up these hands:

♠ AT874 ♥ AK987 ♦ J6 ♣ 8

♠ Q2 ♥ Q4 ♦ KT974 ♣ KT32

Here's the auction:

West	North	East	South
			p
1♦	1♠	p	1NT
p	2♥	p	2NT
p	p	p

Jerry, on my left, led a fourth-best five of diamonds. I played the six of diamonds off the board, and was pleased to see it hold. I played off three rounds of hearts to see if my luck was in there too-- and it was! They split 3-3. Rather than figure out what to pitch on the next two hearts, I decided to leave them on the table with the spade ace to get to them later. Since anything that LHO led would be good for me, I led the jack of diamonds off the table (Sharon, East, pitching a discouraging club). West won and led the jack of spades, which ran around to my queen (Sharon playing the three smoothly). I pounded out the last diamond honor and West put another spade on the table. I could stick in the ten and take a whole lot of tricks if LHO had led from KJx or KJxx, as it appeared... would Sharon have made the good play of ducking from Kxx or Kxxx?

I said, "I'm making this play out of respect for you, Sharon," and hopped up with the ace of spades. I made exactly two.



Here's the whole hand:

	♠ AT874 ♥ AK987 ♦ J6 ♣ 8
♠ J6 ♥ J62 ♦ AQ853 ♣ A74		♠ K953 ♥ T53 ♦ 2 ♣ QJ965
	♠ Q2 ♥ Q4 ♦ KT974 ♣ KT32

A great smooth duck from Sharon. When did we let expert players go into bridge politics, anyway?

Call to Juniors and former Juniors

Bill Pollack, President of the United States Bridge Federation, has sent out a plea to Juniors and former Juniors to help the USBF out in recruiting for the upcoming World Transnational Junior Championship in Turkey and for other Junior events. You can read his press release here.

The Junior programs in North America are dying. Please do anything you can to help.

By the way-- he mentions to contact him several times in his press release, but nowhere does he say how to contact him. Check out the USBF's Contacts page here.

A New Application of the Rabbi's Rule: From the Bermuda Regional Daily Bulletin

John Carruthers puts together the best bulletin in the business, and this year's in Bermuda was no different. Here's his statement on a play I made on Friday:

The Rabbi’s Rule states simply: “When the king is offside singleton, drop it.” McKenzie Myers, who is having a fine tournament, except perhaps for the following hand, helped Alan Douglas find a new application for the Rabbi’s Rule on the following deal from Friday’s Swiss Teams.

	♠ A5 ♥ A2 ♦ AQJ75 ♣ AT96
♠ QT975 ♥ Q98 ♦ T98 ♣ T94		♠ 632 ♥ T974 ♦ K3 ♣ KQ32
	♠ KJ8 ♥ KJ653 ♦ 642 ♣ J7

Douglas and partner Bill Tucker arrived in three notrump from the South seat. West, Malcolm Lewis, led the ten of spades and Douglas won the jack.. He immediately led a diamond to the queen – Myers played the three! No, he didn’t pull the wrong card, he was merely hoping to mislead declarer and talk him into using a hand entry to repeat the finesse. From his standpoint, Douglas was reluctant to use his heart entry to repeat the diamond finesse, which had no guarantee of winning a second time anyway. After due thought, he played the diamond ace, and the rabbi, wherever he is, smiled.

Check out all of the Bermuda bulletins at the Bermuda Regional web site.

Back to it

The Bermuda Regional starts tomorrow, and I'm red-eyeing it out tonight. This tournament is always the best one on the ACBL's schedule. The local organizers work with the country's tourism department to create a wonderful experience. I'll give you all the details next week (if I can find an internet connection).

To hold you over, here's a couple of matchpoint problems:

(A) Red vs. white

♠ Q2 ♥A3 ♦KQJ5 ♣AT753

Partner, in first chair, opens 1C, and RHO bounces to 5S! What's your call?

(B) All white

♠ K ♥AKJT96 ♦JT973 ♣T

LHO opens 3C and RHO lifts to 5C. D0 you bid?

It's over!

So the inaugural Charlottesville Regional is all over.

This is the most exhausted I've ever been.

That's not to say that it wasn't a fabulous time-- it was wonderful. I made some new friends and played some good bridge. It was just an immense amount of work.

The Regional was more successful than we thought it could be, due to lots of help from the DoubleTree staff. The two most notable performers there were Lee Taintor, customer service manager and Jim Moyer, executive chef. Lee was always there to help me out in any way possible, and often went above and beyond whatever I requested. Jim did a fabulous and creative job of keeping over 800 people fed quickly, tastily, and cheaply. I couldn't have done my job without them.

Also, I can't forget Renee and Tatiana at the front desk. All of the front desk people were friendly and helpful, but these two were amazing.

Thanks also to all of our volunteers, especially Nan Massie, Partnership Chair, Marie Hudick, Registration Chair, Chris Moll, Bulletin Chair, Steve Rothman, Recycling Chair, and Tammy Pepper, Prize Chair. But the hardest working person at the tournament (with the possible exception of Millard Natchwey, Chief Director) was Scott Tumperi, our Hospitality Chair. Tump was the friendly (and spectacular) bartender in the Hospitality Suite every night. We couldn't have done it without you, Scott.

Of course, the biggest thank you is to you the players. Thanks so much for taking your precious time and money to enjoy a week of bridge-playing with us!

There will be a vote in the District Six meeting in May on whether or not to add Charlottesville to the D6 regional rotation. If you know anyone on the D6 Board, please let them know how much you enjoyed the tournament.

Regional Time!

The Charlottesville Regional starts today! Meg and I are the co-chairs of the tournament, so I don't know how much time I'll have to post this week. I'll try to put as much up as I can...

For a warmup, here's a bidding and play problem faced by England's Phillip King (coauthor of The Kings' Tales and many other fabulously entertaining bridge books).

Phillip was in fourth seat at all vul and held

♠ A ♥ 543 ♦ AQJ82 ♣ AK52

His LHO opened 3H, and there were two passes to him. What would you bid in this situation?

Phil pulled out a brave 3NT! Here's the whole hand:

Dealer S Vul All Scoring IMPs	♠ KQT94 ♥ K ♦ KT63 ♣ 963
♠ J7532 ♥ T8 ♦ 94 ♣ J874		♠ A ♥ 543 ♦ AQJ82 ♣ AK52
	♠ 86 ♥ AQJ9762 ♦ 75 ♣ QT

West	North	East	South
			3♥
p	p	3NT	p
p	p

South was leery about leading away from his hearts, so he started with the ♠8, won by declarer's stiff ace. The ace and king of clubs were cashed, and King was pleased with the drop of the ♣QT giving him two entries to dummy in the club suit. He led to the ♣J (South pitching the ♠6) and tried to run the ♦9. North covered with the ♦10 and King won with the ♦J. He played his last club up to the dummy, South pitching a heart and North a spade. Then came the ♦4 to the ♦8 (both defenders following) and he stopped to take in the distributional information.

If diamonds were 3-3, he could cash the ace and claim ten tricks - five diamonds, four clubs, and a spade. Could that be the case? He decided not. South had led a spade and pitched a spade, so he had two there. He'd followed to two clubs and two diamonds. With the opening 3♥ call almost always showing 7, all thirteen of South's cards were known! So there wouldn't be a friendly diamond split. Since he knew all thirteen cards in the South hand, he could work out the North hand as well. These are the remaining cards as seen in declarer's mind's eye:

Dealer S Vul All Scoring IMPs	♠ KQT ♥ ? ♦ K3 ♣ ---
♠ J753 ♥ T8 ♦ --- ♣ ---		♠ --- ♥ 543 ♦ AQ2 ♣ ---
	♠ --- ♥ ?????? ♦ --- ♣ ---

Taking the only chance he could see, he led a low heart from his hand! South (who, remember, had AQJ9762) couldn't work out the position (the ♥A from him allows him to claim the rest of the tricks!) and played the ♥J. North had to win the trick and was endplayed into giving declarer two spade tricks or two diamond tricks. Declarer just lost two spades and two hearts for a scary +600.

A few bidding problems

Here's a few bidding and lead problems to help get you warmed up for the Charlottesville Regional:

(A) IMPs, white vs. red

♠ A ♥KT964 ♦none ♣QJT7542

RHO passes, you open 1C (or do you?), LHO passes, and partner bids 1H. RHO passes to you. What's your call?

(B) Matchpoints, red vs. white

♠ KJ862 ♥T92 ♦AJ3 ♣J7

RHO opens 1H, you pass, LHO bids a forcing 1NT, partner sticks in a 2S (!) bid, and RHO passes. What's your bid?

(C) Matchpoints, red vs. white

♠ AJ95 ♥42 ♦97 ♣AT932

There are two passes to you.

(C1) Do you bid?

After you, the auction continues 1NT (15-17) on your left, pass, 2C on your right.

(C2) Your call.

(D) Matchpoints, white vs. red

♠42 ♥AQJ73 ♦A8642 ♣3

You open 1H. LHO jumps to 2S (weak). The next two players pass. Up to you.

(E) Matchpoints, white vs. red

♠A86 ♥Q95 ♦T842 ♣984

The opponents bid uncontested (1D - 1H - 1NT [11-14] - 3NT). What's your lead?

Subtle Suit Preference

The opponents have the auction (1NT - 2C - 2D - 2NT - P), and you're on lead holding

♠ AKT73 ♥94 ♦A96 ♣984.

You lead your fourth-best spade, and dummy comes down with

♠ J965 ♥K652 ♦J84 ♣K2.

Declarer plays low from dummy, partner plays the deuce, and declarer wins the eight in hand. Declarer now shoots back the four of spades. What's going on in the spade suit? Well, it seems pretty obvious that partner has a singleton and declarer has Q84. So it seems right to cash two rounds of spades and exit a spade to set up your long card in the suit.

You can use a suit preference signal in this situation to show which suit you want partner to return. Now, if the dummy was something like

♠ J965 ♥AQJT ♦T84 ♣72,

partner would know not to return a heart, so the choice would be between diamonds and clubs. You would cash two spades and continue the ten of spades if your entry was in diamonds, and continue the three of spades if your entry was in clubs. Fairly simple, right?

But in the current situation (dummy is really ♠ J965 ♥K652 ♦J84 ♣K2) there are three suits in play for partner to return if and when he gets in. So you need to go a little deeper and use your spade honors to show suit preference as well! Here's how I would handle this combination:

Ace, then king, then ten (highest card at every opportunity): Please lead hearts!
King, then ace, then three (lowest card at every opportunity): Please lead clubs!
King, then ace, then ten (low then high): Please lead diamonds!

There's also a fourth possibility: ace, then king, then three. My instinct would be to use this to show something in both hearts and clubs but no sure entry.

In order for these subtle suit preference signals to be effective, both partners need to be paying attention throughout the defense- but if you're willing to put in the work, your defense can be devastating.

Playing in bad contracts strengthens your declarer play.

Last night at the bridge club, playing against an unusually strong pair for this five-table game, I picked up the unspectacular holding of

♠ J974 ♥QT82 ♦Q4 ♣T87

Nobody was vulnerable, and my RHO dealt and opened 1D. I passed, of course, and surprisingly, LHO did too. Partner doubled, and RHO passed. I had my first decision of the hand. The bridge books will tell you to bid up the line in all situations with 4-4 in the majors, but I feel strongly that this is an exception. Lots of times your partner will cuebid 2D over your 1H holding something like

♠ AQT3 ♥AJ3 ♦A5 ♣KJ94

and you won't know whether to 'reverse' into spades trying for your (possibly nonexistent) 4-4 fit there, or to rebid 2H to try to get out cheaply. So I advocate starting with 1S on this handtype, leaving yourself an easy 2H call on the next round. Here's a good rule that I always try to follow: Don't make your first bid until you've planned your second bid.

So I bid 1S, LHO passed, and partner leapt to 3S. I figured I had a lot more than I could on this auction, so bid the game. LHO led the nine of diamonds, and I saw

♠ AKT6 ♥ A ♦ K732 ♣ KQ52

♠ J974 ♥ QT82 ♦ Q4 ♣ T87

Pard had a great 19-count with a side stiff and four-card support, but I'm still not cold for 4S. Maybe this should make me rethink my "automatic" raise to 4S... but first I have to think about making this hand. From the lead, it looks like diamonds are 2-5. I have a diamond and probably two clubs to lose on top (LHO most likely wouldn't pass 1D with the club ace, so unless RHO has AJ tight, I have a second loser there). There's also a possible trump loser, and then there's the problem of it all adding up to ten tricks...

I played low from dummy at trick one, and RHO played an encouraging diamond spot (pretty much confirming the 2-5 break there). I won with the queen in hand and led a heart to the ace. It seemed like the best way to get up to ten tricks was to ruff diamonds in hand. In order to avoid a trump loser, I'd need the doubleton queen in opener's hand. So I led a low diamond off the table. RHO won with the ten (LHO following with the eight) and led a low diamond (usually the right play-- he didn't want to lead the ace, have me ruff high, then draw trumps and get a pitch on the good diamond king). I played loser-on-loser, pitching the seven of clubs. LHO ruffed in and led a club to the king and ace. Now RHO played the ace of diamonds to squash the king. I ruffed with the jack and was thrilled to see LHO pitch a club. Almost home! I led a spade to the ace (three, eight) and led two rounds of clubs. RHO followed to both of them, so I ruffed with the nine -- LHO pitched again. So clubs were 3-3 and the little club on the table was good. All that was left was to try to draw trumps-- low, low, king, queen! My two small black cards in dummy were good. Making four. Here's the whole hand:

Dealer E Vul None Scoring MP Lead ♦9	♠ AKT6 ♥ A ♦ K732 ♣ KQ52
♠ 532 ♥ K9543 ♦ 98 ♣ 643		♠ Q8 ♥ J76 ♦ AJT65 ♣ AJ9
	♠ J974 ♥ QT82 ♦ Q4 ♣ T87

When I started out declaring this hand, I certainly wasn't planning on ruffing out my 4-3 club fit for my tenth trick...

The hard way

The other day I played my first game of real, live bridge in nearly a month. We played my partner's normal system: old-school Schenken-style forcing club with four-card majors. Sadly, the system didn't come up very often.

We had a great time. On two separate occasions we went +500 the hard way.*

The opponents had the uncontested auction 1C - 1S - 2C - 2NT - 3NT. I was on lead with:

♠ AJ86 ♥A2 ♦K542 ♣752
What would you lead? I decided that as little as the ten of spades and an entry would help my spades run, so led the six of spades. Dummy came down and I saw:

♠ none ♥ QT3 ♦ J97 ♣ AQJ9643
	♠ AJ86 ♥ A2 ♦ K542 ♣ 752

A heart was pitched from dummy. Partner won the king and pushed back the ten of spades. Declarer covered with the queen, I won, and a diamond was pitched from the table. I had a problem. If pard had the spade nine, as the ten would suggest, I should cash the jack and lead the eight back to him. But if declarer had it, as the quick cover of the queen would suggest, I should switch to whatever partner's entry would be. After some thinking, I switched to a low diamond. My heart sank when this ran around to the queen. I thought I'd blown it-- it looked like declarer now had the AQ of diamonds and seven clubs for her contract.

Declarer led a club up to the queen, and partner won the king! We might be setting this after all... Partner played a low spade through declarer. I won the eight and cashed the jack. The nine dropped from declarer. Partner had made the fine play of the ten of spades from KTxxx! I cashed the ace of hearts and led a hopeful low heart. Pard won the king, cashed his long spade, and exited a heart. Declarer had to give me a diamond at the end for a satisfying down five. Here's the whole hand:

	♠ KT752 ♥ K652 ♦ T8 ♣ KT
♠ none ♥ QT3 ♦ J97 ♣ AQJ9643		♠ Q943 ♥ J987 ♦ AQ63 ♣ 8
	♠ AJ86 ♥ A2 ♦ K542 ♣ 752

*The hard way is down five vulnerable, undoubled. Down ten nonvul, undoubled is the really hard way.

Book review: Dynamic Defense

The more of his books I read, the more I suspect that Mike Lawrence is the best bridge writer of our time. Over the holidays, I reread his Dynamic Defense. This is written in his classic "over my shoulder" style, in which Lawrence takes the reader through all of his thought processes at the table. There are a lot of detailed descriptions of tough defenses, but one of my favorite hands was fairly simple:

Mike held

♠	T975
♥	QJ62
♦	T93
♣	J2

and was on lead after a long auction. RHO opened 1NT, LHO transferred to hearts and showed long clubs, and they had a power auction, cuebidding and keycarding into 6H.

Mike's reasoning was such: They obviously have a ton of points, so the only tricks we have coming are in the trump suit. I might have two trump tricks, but a strong declarer will take a safety play, probably low to an intermediate card (T, 9, or 8) on the first round. So how do I make sure he doesn't do that?

He led the deuce of clubs, trying to suggest a singleton. Declarer hastily cashed the ace and king of hearts and conceded one down.

Dynamic Defense is a must-read for any improving player. I first read this book about six years ago when I was struggling to break out of Flight C. It helped teach me the right things to think about at the table. Hopefully it can do so for you too! Read this book, then reread it.

Buy Dynamic Defense at Amazon.com

2008: A Look Back

2008 was a very good year for me personally and professionally. I got married, improved my bridge play, took on some new students, and met a lot of fun, talented people all over the ACBL. I played in six Sectionals, ten Regionals, and two NABCs (sorry, Detroit-- I decided that I only wanted to do one frigid-weather Nationals this year). A lot of work has gone into planning our own Regional. My proudest accomplishment is, over the last 18 months, bringing a bright beginner well along her road to experthood.

Here's the places I went for bridge tournaments this year, and how I did at them:

January:

Salem, OR Sectional: 13
Bermuda Regional: 59

February:

Las Vegas Regional: 63

March:

Toronto Regional: 23

April:

Washington, DC Sectional: 8
Gatlinburg, TN Regional: 78

May:

Medford, OR Regional: 17
Portland, OR Sectional: 10
Raleigh, NC Regional: 29

June:

Grants Pass, OR Sectional: 9
Reston, VA (Washington, DC) Regional: 38

July:

Las Vegas NABC: 22

August:

Charlottesville, VA Sectional: 26
Hunt Valley (Baltimore), MD Regional: 26

September-October:

Seaside, OR Regional: 22

November:

Virginia Beach, VA Regional: 57
Boston NABC: 19

December:

Charlottesville, VA Sectional: 25

Looking back, this year marks the fewest Sectionals I've played in many years. I didn't quite make it to either of my annual goals for colored points-- 100 Silver and 10 Platinum (98 and 6, resspectively). Hopefully my 600ish will put me somewhere reasonable on the Top 500 list. I'm hoping to make it in the top 300.

So here's to as fun of a 2009, starting with the Charlottesville Regional!

Pressure (Warning: contains math)

I'm often asked the main differences between club-level bridge and high-level bridge. My answer's always the same: "Pressure." Expert opponents will attempt to give you a problem on every hand.

Here's an example:

You're West, holding

♠	AQT
♥	Q65
♦	QJT
♣	T954

In an all-expert IMP game, you deal (nobody's vulnerable). North opens 1H. Partner (former junior standout and current all-around great guy Charlie Garrod) leaps to 3S. South thinks for a bit and bids 4H. What's your call?

First of all, how many defensive tricks do you have? I'd say right around one and a half. Most of the time the opponents' spades will split 2-1, and the diamond holding will usually be worth a trick. Once in a very great while, you'll be able to take two spade tricks-- remember, partner's under 30 and won't always have a seven-bagger for a nonvul three bid.

Next, is it safe to bid? Well, I'd argue more that it's not safe to pass! I think we have seven spade tricks and a diamond for at worst -300 in four spades doubled. So it's certainly right to bid.

But here's the pressure part. When he held this hand against me, Stan Schenker made the gutsy call of 5S, forcing the last guess on his opponents!

We guessed correctly -- 5S went for 500 when we could only make 5H -- but let's look at the mathematics of the situation:

Let's say that the opponents will double 5S 80% of the time, and bid a failing 6H 20% of the time. So, 20% of the time we win 11 imps for +50 opposite +450. The other 80% of the time would be split up like this:

3/4 of the time, 5S will go for 500. We'll lose 2 imps for this.
1/8 of the time, partner has a better hand than we expected and will only go for 300. We now win 4 imps.
1/16 of the time, partner has a worse hand than we expected-- maybe a six-card suit. We go down 800, and lose 8 imps. Ouch!
1/16 of the time, partner has a real dog. They defend well and we go for 1100! Lose 12! Oof!

So here's the whole table:

20% win 11
60% lose 2
10% win 4
5% lose 8
5% lose 12

Put all these wins and loses together and the expected imp gain is plus 0.4 imps! This means that this action could work out well, it could work out poorly, but in the long run, it's a winning action.

The percentages I used to weight the actions are totally subjective, and only a product of my at-the-table experience. If you think that the numbers are wildly different, plug them in to a spreadsheet and play around with them. You can download the Excel spreadsheet I used for this exercise by clicking this link.

Two-fifths of an imp may not sound like that much, but if you make sure all of your bids and plays have a positive imp expectancy, you'll find yourself winning most of your matches.

Nice bid, Stan!

Our New System

Meg and I have recently switched over to a version of Transfer Precision, with some success. I thought I'd give you folks quick rundown on the system.

"Standard" Precision is a strong-club system with natural positive responses to 1C. With our version of Transfer Precision, we bid a strain other than what we have in order to have the stronger (and less defined) hand as declarer more often. Here's a quick rundown on our responses to the forcing 1C opening:

1C (16+HCP if unbalanced, 17+ if balanced; any shape)

• 1D = 0-7 HCP or 8+ with a 4441 shape (any singleton)
• 1H = 8+ HCP, 5+ spades
• 1S = 8+ HCP, 5+ hearts
• 1NT = 8+ HCP, 5+ clubs
• 2C = 8+ HCP, 5+ diamonds
• 2D = 8-13 HCP, balanced
• 2H, 2S, 3C, 3D = 4-6 HCP, six-card suit

All of these positive responses can be made on less than 8 HCP with a good enough reason. I'd certainly show a positive hand with

♠	AKTxxx
♥	xxx
♦	xx
♣	xx

or

♠	QJxxxx
♥	KTxxx
♦	x
♣	x.

Over partner's transfer positive, opener can bid the suit shown to show a fit and start a (short - for now) series of asking bids. Here's an example of our asks at work:

♠ A972 ♥ AKJ2 ♦ KT95 ♣ K

♠ K6 ♥ 8 ♦ A98643 ♣ AT94

1C - 2C;
2D - 3H;
3S - 4C;
4N - 5H;
7D - P.

1C = 16+, artificial
2C = 5+ diamonds, 8+ HCP (game force)
2D = Tell me more!
3H (sixth step)= Six-card suit with one of the top three honors
3S = Tell me more!
4D (third step)= Three controls outside diamonds (A=2, K=1; this must be the ace of clubs and king of spades)
4NT = Keycard ask in diamonds (eventually we'll use 4H for this, but we haven't gotten around to discussing all the ramifications of this yet); opener doesn't yet know if responder's suit is Axxxxx or Qxxxxx
5H = Two keycards without the queen of diamonds
7D = Six diamonds plus AK of the other three suits is twelve tricks... if partner has club length I can get a club ruff for the 13th. With my club shortness it makes it more likely that he has length there. Well, here goes -- I hope he has 3+ clubs or a major-suit queen!

How would you and your partner get to this 29 HCP grand slam?